China will not buy Kazakh feed flour made from Russian grain

Kazakh exporters of feed flour have faced sudden disruptions after China introduced new import requirements affecting even already signed contracts. As a result, large volumes of finished product are now stranded — some already loaded into railcars but unable to be shipped. The situation is creating mounting financial pressure due to delays, penalties, and storage costs.

The feed flour sector in Kazakhstan has expanded rapidly over the past two years, becoming an important factor in stabilizing domestic grain prices. This growth was largely driven by duty-free access to the Chinese market for feed flour, unlike food-grade flour, which faces prohibitive tariffs. The policy allowed processors to utilize abundant supplies of low-grade wheat following the 2024 harvest.

Until recently, exporters operated under a simplified certification system by obtaining separate Chinese approvals for wheat and barley flour, then supplying the blended product as feed flour. However, in late March 2026, China introduced a unified certification code specifically for feed flour. This move effectively halted shipments, with only 27 out of 66 Kazakh applicants receiving the new approval.

The remaining producers are now in limbo, uncertain when — or if — they will be able to resume exports. Meanwhile, many have ongoing contracts with Chinese buyers, and their finished products are accumulating in warehouses and railcars, leading to increasing operational losses.

A key new requirement from China is the prohibition of Russian grain in the production of Kazakh feed flour. Beijing insists that feed flour imported from Kazakhstan must be made exclusively from domestic grain. In addition, the use of non-grain additives is restricted, and only direct producers — not intermediaries — are allowed to export.

Market participants warn that these stricter rules could push prices higher for Chinese buyers, as Kazakh exporters adjust their business models and potentially lose access to VAT refund mechanisms. There are also growing concerns that China may gradually consolidate control over the sector through joint ventures, potentially reducing Kazakhstan’s role to that of a raw grain supplier rather than a value-added processor.