China to cut soybean demand in near future – FAS USDA

Amid a trade war with the United States, China is developing a special program for sourcing soybeans from Brazil that meets Chinese sustainability and quality standards.

According to a report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the Soy China initiative is an exclusive, customized soybean production model that meets Chinese import requirements and standards, including environmental, social, and traceability criteria. The model is inspired by the Boi China idea, in which Brazilian cattle and beef are raised specifically to meet Chinese import standards.

In 2024, 71% of China’s soybean imports came from Brazil. If Brazil produced a variety specifically developed to meet Chinese standards, that share would likely increase, according to the FAS.

“The Soy China initiative signals a deeper alignment of Brazil’s export strategy with China’s agricultural needs,” the service said. “While Brazil currently prioritizes the Chinese market for soybean exports, this initiative could institutionalize a segmented production line exclusively for China as the country seeks to expand its influence in the South American agricultural market.”

FAS notes that China’s soybean imports are expected to increase slightly in 2024/25, but are below the record 112.2 million tonnes of 2023/24. Soybean production in 2025/26 is estimated at 19.8 million tonnes, slightly below 2024/25, largely due to significantly lower soybean prices for Chinese farmers.

Consumption is estimated at 124.4 million tonnes, up slightly from 122 million tonnes in 2024/25. China’s soybean demand has increased by an average of 4.6 million tonnes per year over the 20 years since 2002, and the agency expects that trend to stall given a number of market and policy factors, including a slowing overall economy and government efforts to reduce soybean meal demand.

China’s soybean crush in 2025/26 is expected to be 101 million tonnes, up 2% from the previous season, driven by an expected slow recovery in feed demand. Soybean consumption for food purposes is projected to reach 17.5 million tonnes, up slightly from the previous year.

Imports are forecast at 106 million tonnes, up 1.9% from 2024/25. Imports are expected to decline in the coming years as soybean meal demand growth slows.

According to the China Agricultural Prospects (2025-2034) report released in April, by 2034, China expects that by supporting technological progress and promoting high-yielding, stress-tolerant crop varieties, grain yields will increase by 7.8% to 6.3 tonnes per hectare. Total output will reach 753 million tonnes, with the planting area stabilising at 119 million hectares.

Soybean yields are forecast to reach 2.78 tonnes per hectare within 10 years, with soybean production growing at an average annual rate of 5.3%, while imports will decline to 79.03 million tonnes by 2034.

Wheat and corn imports will also decline markedly, with total grain imports forecast to decline to 113 million tonnes by 2034, representing an average annual decline of 3.1%. According to the report, structural changes are expected in trade as a whole, in particular, improved diversification of import sources.

Earlier, it was reported that the US is irrevocably losing the Chinese soybean market. Importers from China have completed bookings of soybeans for September in the amount of about 8 million tons, all of them from South America.

Tags: China, soybean, imports