China. Sunflower oil supply and demand will tighten sharply in 2025
The biggest competitor of rapeseed oil is sunflower oil. Due to the abnormal heat in the Black Sea region, sunflower seed production in Russia and Ukraine, the world’s largest producing countries, is expected to drop significantly in 2024/25. The US Department of Agriculture expects global sunflower seed production to decline by 10% year-on-year, and sunflower oil is expected to be the vegetable oil with the largest drop in production in the world.
According to customs statistics, China’s cumulative imports of sunflower oil in 2024 totaled 1.0853 million tons, down 39% from 1.5089 million tons in the previous year. Against the backdrop of declining production, Russia has introduced new rules to increase export duty on sunflower oil from November 2024. In total, the cost of sunflower oil imported from Russia to China will increase by more than 200 yuan per ton. This also means that China’s sunflower oil import volume may continue to decline in the future.
Sunflower oil prices have great potential for growth in 2025 amid tight supply.
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