China is becoming less and less dependent on grain imports

China will be less dependent on grain imports in 2025/26 as domestic wheat and corn yields rise. The USDA said its 2025/26 corn production forecast is 300 million tonnes, up 1.7% from the previous year, as new genetically engineered corn varieties are expected to significantly boost yields.

Wheat production is also expected to increase by 1.5% in 2025/26, driven by higher yields and increased planting area. Higher corn yields are helping to increase the share of corn in feed rations, which is expected to remain high.

“Production of sorghum and barley is projected to remain stable, while imports of these commodities are expected to decline due to a combination of efforts to reduce grain imports, availability of additional commodities, and global market conditions due to geopolitics and retaliatory tariffs that are driving up prices,” the USDA said.

China recently suspended imports of sorghum from C&D (USA) Inc. after it was found to contain excessive levels of mycotoxins.

Despite grain tensions, overall feed use in China is projected to increase slightly in 2024/25 due to expected stable demand for hog feed and increased demand for poultry feed.

Hog production is projected to increase in 2025, driven by higher numbers of pigs produced per sow per year due to improved management practices and animal health. However, the increase will be limited by declining sow numbers. Beijing is urging consumers to switch from pork to chicken because the feed conversion rate of chicken is much higher than that of pigs.”

Tags: corn, grain, wheat, China