China imports less rapeseed than previously expected

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA) has lowered its forecast for China’s canola imports in the 2025/2026 season from 4.1 million tons to 3.1 million tons, and for the 2024/2025 season from 4.0 million tons to 4.5 million tons.

The main factor behind the downward revision of both forecasts is the trade tensions between Canada and China.

Canada has been China’s largest canola supplier for the past two decades. However, in August 2025, Beijing announced the imposition of a temporary anti-dumping duty of 75.8% on canola imports. This duty must be paid upon import but will be collected as a deposit until a final determination is made. On September 5, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an extension of the investigation until March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case. This would potentially allow for the presentation of new evidence that could lead to a different final decision. The temporary tariff will remain in place, effectively halting future imports of Canadian canola.

In March 2025, China imposed 100% anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola oil and canola meal.

China is currently working to resume canola imports from Australia, which it has blocked since 2020 due to concerns about blackleg, a fungal disease of canola.

COFCO, a Chinese corporation, has reportedly begun test shipments from Australia to evaluate the effectiveness of new cleaning procedures, although as of July 2025, Australian canola shipments were not yet included in official import data.

Demand for canola in China, particularly from the growing aquaculture sector, remains high, and a number of companies have invested in processing imported canola. Canola oil is popular in some regional culinary traditions, and demand is high when prices are competitive.

Rapeseed imports in the first nine months of 2024/25 (October-September) totaled 4.24 million tonnes, 3.9% higher than the same period last season. Some importers attempted to expedite purchases of Canadian canola in anticipation of a decision that could close the market.

Canada was the primary supplier of canola, accounting for nearly 97% of China’s total imports during this period.

China’s rapeseed oil imports in the first ten months of the 2024/25 season totaled 1.88 million tonnes, 6% higher than the same period last season. Russia is China’s primary supplier of rapeseed oil, accounting for nearly 60%. Season-to-season imports could reach 2.0 million tonnes.

Tags: China, rapeseed, rapeseed oil