China ‘ignores’ US beef, while Australian farmers benefit

China’s de facto ban on US beef imports is giving Australian producers and exporters an advantage, new analysis shows, as the country is likely to benefit even more from US President Donald Trump’s efforts to reform global trade.

The latest Australian government data shows beef exports rose 35% in the first seven months of the year to A$10 billion (US$6.6 billion). Exports to China increased 65%, while exports to the US increased 48%.

The growth of the Chinese market, driven largely by the high-quality grain-fed beef segment, marks a radical turnaround for Australia’s livestock industry, which suffered greatly five years ago when Beijing imposed punitive trade measures against Canberra amid diplomatic tensions.

China, the world’s largest importer of agricultural commodities, is now using its position to pressure the US, including by suspending soybean orders, despite the recent extension of a trade truce between the two countries.

This move began in March 2025, when China refused to renew export licenses for hundreds of American slaughterhouses, leading to a near-total halt in beef trade between the two countries, worth $1.55 billion (in 2024).

Brett Stewart, founder of Global AgriTrends, said Beijing has not publicly acknowledged the decision, adding that it is a shocking departure from the comprehensive market access granted to American exporters under the Phase One agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term.

“It’s strange because no one said anything, not the US government, not the Chinese government. We just woke up one day and realized we can’t export beef to China anymore,” he said.

With no sign of official intervention, Stewart doesn’t believe the beef market access issue will be resolved before the next round of trade talks between the two countries, scheduled for November 10.

This comes amid soaring beef prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Beef Price Index reached a record high in September, driven by strong demand in the United States.

Andrew Cox, general manager of international markets at Meat and Livestock Australia, said that while trade and tariffs had an impact, the main driver of demand for Australian beef was supply constraints.

“In particular, US beef supplies have been significantly reduced this year due to herd recovery from drought,” he said.

“So this impacts all markets, including the US, as well as other markets where we compete with US beef. This has simply created an opportunity for Australian beef.”

Australian farmers have a strong position in the US market, enjoying a significant tariff advantage over their competitor, Brazil. The South American country, the largest supplier of beef to the US, was hit with an additional 50% tariff by Mr. Trump. This is in addition to the existing 26.4% tariff, which is forcing Brazil to redirect its supplies to China. Meanwhile, Australia, which exports primarily ground beef (for hamburgers) to the US, is subject to only a basic tariff of 10%.

“The situation is quite favorable right now,” noted Dennis Voznesensky, an agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank.

“The US is really constrained in its supply capacity, as is China,” he said.

Ernst & Young notes that Mr. Trump’s destabilizing trade policies could benefit Australia by increasing its export market share, attracting new investment, and securing more favorable terms of trade. This could add between 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points to GDP, depending on the scenario.

“While some areas still require caution, many Australian companies are likely to benefit from this new situation,” the report states.

Tags: Australia, China, Beef cattle, USA, restrictions