China is holding off on securing new soybean cargoes for December and January as high premiums on Brazilian supplies discourage buyers, traders told Reuters. The pause in purchases could lead Beijing to draw on state reserves to meet short-term demand, as the country still needs about 8–9 million tons of soybeans for the two-month shipment window. Recent large purchases from Argentina have covered supplies through November, while U.S. beans remain effectively out of reach amid renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
“China is not buying U.S. soybeans because of the trade war, and Brazilian beans are too expensive,” said one oilseed trader from an international firm supplying agricultural products to China. Market participants expect the government may rely on its soybean reserves until the arrival of South America’s new crop early next year.
Brazilian soybean premiums remain high at around $2.8–$2.9 per bushel above the November Chicago soybean contract, compared with roughly $1.7 for U.S. cargoes. Negative crush margins have further reduced incentives for Chinese processors to secure December–January shipments, a Shanghai-based trader said.
Hopes are pinned on Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest, expected to reach a record 177.64 million tons, about six million more than the previous year, according to crop agency Conab. Traders estimate new-crop shipments could begin as early as late January, potentially easing price pressure.
Chinese importers have not ruled out a return to U.S. soybeans if trade talks between the two countries yield results later this month. “If a deal is reached, Chinese buyers would likely turn to U.S. beans for that two-month window, as prices are more competitive than South American offers,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. U.S. President Donald Trump has accused China of deliberately avoiding U.S. soybean purchases, calling the move “an economically hostile act” that has hurt American farmers.
