China could cut soybean imports by two-thirds within a decade – Goldman Sachs

China can reduce its dependence on imported soybeans from the current 90% to less than 30% over the next decade, according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs. Analysts say Beijing is actively strengthening food security policies, seeking to protect supply chains from external risks and trade conflicts, including with the United States.

The bank estimates that between 2021 and 2024, China has already reduced its annual soybean consumption by 15 million tons thanks to demand-management strategies: reducing the share of soybeans in feed, increasing digestive efficiency and optimizing protein rations in livestock. These steps were initiated during the first US-China trade war and have helped mitigate the impact of trade barriers and instability.

Amid growing domestic demand and a desire to strengthen its own market, Beijing this week reaffirmed its intention to stimulate economic growth by relying on domestic resources. Goldman Sachs said China could cut imports further after Washington’s latest pledges on future purchases.

According to the White House, China has agreed to buy 12 million tons of American soybeans this year and 25 million tons each year for the next three years. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline for the first batch had been extended to the end of the growing season, which is February-March. He also said Beijing was currently meeting its commitments.

Although China imports more than 100 million tons of soybeans annually — about 60% of global trade — Goldman Sachs said the country was making “impressive progress” in reducing its dependence. It estimated that the projected deficit in arable land by 2032 had shrunk from 90 million to 84 million hectares, and that technological improvements could narrow the gap to 5 million hectares by 2035.

Tags: China, soybean, imports