China and India become drivers of the Ukrainian pea market

The Ukrainian pea market recently received two important pieces of news that could affect price trends and trade in the coming months. First, China has certified Ukrainian peas. Second, duty-free trade with India, which was under threat of cancellation, remains in effect.

This is reported by analysts of the PUSK agricultural cooperative, established within the VAR.

China’s certification of Ukrainian peas means that our products will begin exporting to a new market in the new season.

“In fact, we have another large market where we can export peas. This will undoubtedly support prices for the new crop. Although some subsidence is possible in the off-season, there is a high probability that in July-September 2025 we will see an increase in value. At the moment, the market demand for peas of the new crop is forming at a conditional level of $225-230 per ton with delivery in July-August,” analysts of the PUSK cooperative note.

Ukrainian exporters received another piece of positive news: duty-free trade in peas with India, which was supposed to end in February 2025, was extended until the end of May 2025.

“For pea producers, this is a positive factor – those who did not have time to sell now have a second chance. But pea stocks in Ukraine are currently quite limited. The main volumes have already been sold, and only small batches remain on the market. This means that even despite the possibility of export and the continuation of duty-free trade with India, there will be no sharp increase in supply now,” – the PUSK comments.

At the same time, there are weather problems in India that may affect the harvest and, accordingly, further trade policy.

“There is a high probability that India will continue duty-free imports in the future. There are possible situations when trade is supposedly closed, but is resumed again in a few days. Therefore, it is logical not to rush into forward contracts, but to focus on the spot market, where it will probably be possible to sell peas at higher prices,” – analysts predict.

Thus, Ukrainian producers have new prospects for export, and China and India become drivers for pricing in the new season.

Tags: India, pea, Ukraine, China