Central Asian grain producers face dilemma

As looming climate change promises to worsen the problem of water scarcity across Central and South Asia and undermine grain production, the countries of the region are looking into various opportunities for tackling the growing threat. At some point, analysts believe farmers may be left with no choice but to turn to genetic technologies.

Kazakhstan’s grain production might drop by 37% by 2030 due to the impact of climate change, World Bank reported in a 2019 study. The World Bank warned that the republics of Central Asia would be among the most climate vulnerable regions in the next decades, forecasting significant temperature increases in that part of the world.

Now, six years later, this grim forecast is gradually coming true, the World Bank press office said.

“Climate change is having a noticeable impact on Kazakhstan’s crop production, especially wheat and maize,” World Bank said. “Droughts, which already affect a large part of the country, are expected to become more frequent and severe as global temperatures rise.”

So far, the grain production dynamics in Central Asia give no visible reasons for concerns. In 2024, Kazakhstan collected 25.2 million tonnes of grain, a 47% increase compared with the previous year and nearly 20% more than in 2019.

Uzbekistan, the largest economy in Central Asia, collected 8.8 million tonnes of grain in 2024, 4.8% more than a year earlier and also nearly 20% more than in 2019, the Uzbek State Statistical Service estimated.

However, the devil is in the details. Changing temperatures have turned grain production in Kazakhstan into a lottery, said Yevgeniy Karabanov, head of the analytical department of the Kazakhstan Grain Union, pointing to fluctuations in yearly grain production that have grown wider in recent years. Moreover, the problems start weighing heavily on farmers’ profitability.

“In Kazakhstan, these changes are expressed not only in an increase in average monthly temperatures but also in a decrease in precipitation, a reduction in the frost-free and snow-free periods in autumn and spring,” Karabanov said. “In addition, natural cycles begin to go astray. As a result, the southern regions of the country suffer from drought and lack of water, and the northern regions suffer from floods in the spring, from heat and lack of rain in the summer, and from excess rain in the fall.”

Farmers have found it difficult to adapt to these changes and many suffer significant losses due to the effects of climate change, Karabanov admitted.

South Asia impacted, too

The grain industry in South Asia also feels the sting of climate change.

In Pakistan, ranked the eighth most affected country by climate change, over 90% of agriculture depends on irrigation from the Indus River, which is fed by glacial melt and monsoon rains — both affected by climate change, World Bank said.

“Pakistan has been in the grip of shifting rainfall patterns,” it said. “In 2015, 2019 and 2020, heavy rains during sensitive growth periods increased the incidence of wheat rust, while higher rainfall during harvesting seasons in several years damaged ripened crops and delayed harvesting operations,” World Bank said. “Notably, rainfall from January to March increased by 44% in 2019 and 65% in 2020 compared with the 40-year average.”

Again, rough figures paint a different picture. In 2024, Pakistan’s aggregate cereal production reached a record level of 56.6 million tonnes. However, analysts warned that the future of the country’s grain production is threatened.

“The region will experience more droughts, floods and severe heatwaves,” said Camila Bonilla Cedrez, senior specialist, F&A Climate & Environmental Risk. “Countries like Pakistan and Uzbekistan are particularly vulnerable because the majority of their cropland is irrigated, relying on water supplies that originate outside their borders.”

Some impacts of climate change are already here, though they often remain overlooked behind the solid production figures.

“For example, in Pakistan, a shorter winter season is expected in wheat-growing areas, leading to shorter growing seasons and lower yields,” Cedrez said. “Additionally, climate change can increase pest and disease pressure, further affecting agricultural productivity.”

Adapting to survive

Facing the need to feed the growing young population, Central and South Asian countries increasingly consider food security as the key element of political stability.

“Recent climate disasters, such as the flooding in Pakistan, have pushed more people into poverty and food insecurity,” Cedrez said, explaining that rising costs associated with combating negative weather eventually make food less affordable for the local populations.

In response to the challenge, countries in the region embarked on various plans aiming to make grain production more resilient, and these efforts already bear fruits.

“After the floods of 2010, Pakistan has worked with the International Rice Research Institute to develop rice varieties that can survive floods, droughts and heatwaves,” World Bank said. “Flood-resilient rice varieties like DR92, developed by the Dhokri Rice Research Institute, helped mitigate the devastating 2022 flood impacts in Sindh province. These varieties were able to tolerate prolonged water submersion, enabling continued production despite field inundation.”

Examples of adaptation practices include changing crop varieties to more heat- or drought-tolerant types, switching to more resistant crops, adjusting planting dates to avoid critical periods like flowering or grain filling during extreme conditions, improving soil management, and diversifying crop rotation to increase farming system resilience, Cedrez said.

However, there is no one-size-fits-all solution, and the available tools can only help to a certain point.

“The effectiveness and applicability of these practices depend on the crop, region, system, and type of farmers,” Cedrez said.

Farmers alone can’t successfully overcome the climate-related challenges, Karabanov said.

In Kazakhstan, the government allocated KZT 700 billion ($1.4 billion) of soft loans with subsidized interest rates subsidizing the purchase of seeds, fertilizers, plant protection products, irrigation equipment, and agricultural machinery, as well as for preferential leasing, Karabanov said.

A similar support package is provided by the Uzbekistan government.

In Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, two of the world’s poorest countries, farmers lack state aid, which also limits their opportunities to invest in renewing agricultural machinery, buy fertilizers and source high-quality seeds.

However, even in the countries where state support is provided, it helps farmers to survive but not to tackle the existing climate-related problems, Karabanov said.

“In general, (farmers need) the development of a long-term state program for the transformation of agriculture in Kazakhstan in the context of ongoing and impending climate change,” Karabanov said.

In Pakistan, the measures already taken are sufficient only to slow down but not reverse the downward trend.

“While some effort is being made on drought and flood-resilient varieties, more effort is required to combat climate change through redirecting public investment.

“A recent study by CIMMYT estimated that under a business-as-usual scenario, Pakistan’s wheat yield may reduce by 16% by 2050 due to climate change,” World Bank said.

Farmers need more support to adapt, Cedrez said.

“Farmers in Central Asia face challenges in accessing high-quality seeds and farm inputs, which are essential for achieving higher yields, reducing vulnerability to pest and disease outbreaks, using resources more efficiently, ensuring food security, and breaking poverty cycles,” she said. “Better access to inputs should be guaranteed, along with crop insurance to reduce their risks.”

Gene editing the answer?

Genetic editing technologies in agriculture have relatively low popularity across Central and South Asia, but with their food security on the line, countries in that region may have to revise their stance on this issue.

“Today, the import, cultivation and sale of GMO crops in Kazakhstan is prohibited by law,” Karabanov said, adding similar measures are enforced across the Eurasian Economic Community countries, which cover the former Soviet republic.

“In addition, a negative attitude towards products containing GMOs has been formed in the public consciousness,” he said. “Citizens of the country rightly believe that the existing potential of land resources in Kazakhstan is capable of ensuring food security without using GMOs.”

For Kazakhstan, a prominent grain exporter, the issue of using GMOs has another dimension.

“The use of GMO crops can significantly undermine the export potential of the country, which positions itself as a supplier of GMO-free products,” he said. “A number of countries that buy Kazakhstani agricultural products also have restrictions on the import of products containing GMO.”

Cedrez has a different view.

“GMO crops have also proven to increase climate resilience in some farming systems, like the US Midwest, and in other examples, they provide more nutritious crops, such as golden rice in India,” Cedrez said. “I don’t see why it would be an issue if farmers have access to GMO technologies as long as, like any other technology, it is used correctly. It could be a tool for farmers to become more resilient, ensure their food security and, in some cases, help them break the poverty cycle.”

Most farmers in the region remain skeptical that the ban on GMO crops will be revised in the foreseeable future, but they don’t rule out that, at some point, the existing restrictions can be eased.

“Perhaps, in the future, changes will occur that will force a change in the public consciousness in this regard (of GMO products),” Karabanov said.

Tags: Kazakhstan, grain, Tajikistan, Pakistan, wheat, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan