Canola prices up 4.2% after lower crop forecast in Canada

StatCan yesterday lowered the forecast of canola harvest in the country in 2024/25 MY by 0.5 mln tonnes to 19 mln tonnes (19.5 mln tonnes in August), which is 1.1% lower than in 2023/24 MY and 5.2% lower than in September USDA forecast (20 mln tonnes). The canola yield estimate was lowered by 0.8% to 38.4 bushels/acre, and the harvested area by 0.4% to 21.8 million acres.

This led to a sharp increase in quotations, which compensated for Friday’s decline.

It is expected that in Saskatchewan, the canola harvest will decrease by 0.4% to 10.3 million tons, Alberta – by 1.7% to 5.5 million tons, Manitoba – by 2.2% to 3.1 million tons.

November futures for canola on the Winnipeg stock exchange yesterday rose 4.2% to 565 CAD/t or 415,6 $/t (-3.3% for the week, -1.2% for the month) amid rising oil prices.

They were also supported by the increased exports, which rose to 131.5 thsd tonnes during the week, and totaled 1.13 mln tonnes in 2024/25 MY, which is 2.5 times higher than last year.

Futures for rapeseed in the EU has not yet responded to the decline in the harvest in Canada, although it remains the main supplier of rapeseed to the EU, which can supply this season 1.5-2 million tons.

November futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF yesterday rose only 0.3% to 457,75 €/t or 509 $/t, while on Friday they fell by 2.1% amid falling prices for canola.

Exports of canola from Canada in 2024/25 MG is estimated at 7 million tons, but the decline in production amid increasing processing volumes will continue to reduce exports, as amid rising oil prices, refiners offer better prices for canola than exporters. Therefore, the EU needs to step up purchases of canola from Canada to ensure the required processing volumes.

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Tags: prices, Canada, rapeseed