Canola prices fell 4.6% after China imposed a temporary 75.8% tariff on Canadian imports

China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the anti-dumping investigation initiated in September 2024 found that Canada’s agricultural sector, particularly the rapeseed industry, benefited from significant government subsidies and preferential policies, so starting from August 14, 2025, China will impose preliminary anti-dumping duties on imports of Canadian rapeseed at a rate of 75.8%.

This came as a complete surprise to the market, and November canola futures fell 4.6% yesterday to 650 CAD/t or $472/t (-4.6% for the month), after which rapeseed quotes on the Paris stock exchange fell 1.5%.

The reason for the new escalation in the year-long trade dispute, which began with Ottawa’s imposition of tariffs on electric vehicle imports from China in August 2024, is currently unclear, as in June 2025, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, during a telephone conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, stated that there were no deep conflicts of interest between the countries.

China is the world’s largest importer of canola, which it buys mostly from Canada, so the high temporary tariffs are likely to be used to pressure trade negotiations with Canada.

Of course, China will be able to partially purchase canola from Australia, but it will be impossible to find a replacement for Canadian canola on the world market.

Chris Davison, president of the Canola Council of Canada, said that Canada exported $3.64 billion worth of oilseeds to China in 2024.

Canada is currently in a trade conflict with two major buyers of canola – the USA and China, so if the issue is not resolved, the supply of Canadian canola on the EU market will increase, which will increase competition with Ukrainian rapeseed.

The Canadian government and the canola industry have previously denied the dumping allegations, and the industry believes China’s complaint is based on other ongoing trade and political disputes.

In their August report, USDA experts did not change their forecasts for the world rapeseed harvest in the 2025/26 MY, which will exceed last year’s by 3.9 million tons, but reduced the production forecast for Ukraine by 0.2 million tons to 3.5 million tons and increased it for the EU by 0.2 million tons to 19.65 million tons, which will exceed last year’s by 2.8 million tons, while in Canada production is forecast at last year’s level – 19.25 million tons.

Tags: prices, rapeseed