Canadian wheat output expected to rise

Canadian wheat production is forecast to increase by 2% in marketing year 2025-26 as planted area is projected to increase by 2.6% year on year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Wheat area is expected to increase to 11.1 million hectares “due to strong global demand for high-quality wheat,” the FAS said.

The FAS noted that Statistics Canada’s early planting intentions survey in March indicated the largest wheat area gains will be in spring wheat (up 193,000 hectares), while durum area remains flat, and winter wheat area shows an increase of 90,000 hectares, primarily in Ontario.

Total wheat production is forecast at 35.6 million tonnes, the FAS said. If realized, it would be the largest total since the record crop of 37.5 million tonnes in 2013-14.

Canada, the third largest wheat exporter in 2023-24, behind Russia and the European Union, is projected to increase shipments by 2% over last year’s record of 26 million tonnes, the FAS said.

Although wheat exports to the United States could drop in May due to the trade dispute between the two countries, the FAS said it expects “that any wheat being redirected away from the United States will find a new market.”

The FAS said Canada’s wheat exports are highly diversified, with the top 10 markets importing only 65% of Canada’s total wheat exports in 2023-24.

Tags: Canada, wheat