Canadian canola prices rise on strong export demand

Export demand for canola in Canada has surged after China increased tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal by 100% and left the tariff on canola unchanged, as Chinese processors decided to stockpile.

Together with strong export demand from the EU, this led to a 67% increase in canola exports from Canada (compared to the previous season) and a 13% price increase during the month.

US processors also increased their purchases of canola oil from Canada before Trump’s tariffs took effect.

During the month, July canola futures on the ICE Futures exchange rose 13% to a season-high of 698 CAD/t or $510/t, while November futures rose only 7.2% to 660 CAD/t due to uncertainty about planting areas and demand in Canada in the new season.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola exports for April 1-15 amounted to 516 thousand tons, and in total in the MY 2024/25 reached 7.5 million tons, which significantly exceeds the corresponding figure last year (4.5 million tons) and the 5-year average (6.3 million tons) and is in line with the forecast of the Canadian Grain Commission for the entire season, although there are still 3.5 months left until its end.

Against this background, canola stocks in Canada may decrease to 1.4-1.5 million tons by the end of July 2025, while last year they reached 3 million tons.

Traders see the market as technically overbought, but fundamentals such as export and domestic demand are supporting prices at a high level. Rising canola prices will help increase plantings in the new season, although analysts had previously expected a sharp decline in canola plantings due to tariffs imposed by the US and China.

In the MY 2024/25 (as of April 20), the EU increased canola imports compared to the previous season by 14% to 5.41 million tons, in particular from Canada – from 103 to 563 thousand tons and from Australia – from 1.24 to 2.16 million tons.

May rapeseed futures in Paris rose 4% to €519.25/t in the month, compared to €544.75/t two weeks before the contract expiry. At the same time, August new crop rapeseed futures are trading stable and fell only 0.7% to €470/t or $534.3/t in the month on forecasts of an increase in the EU harvest.