Canada adjusts canola crop forecasts downward

Canadian farmers are expected to produce more wheat, oats and soybeans in 2024, but less canola, corn for grain and barley compared to 2023, according to the latest yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.

Canada’s canola crop will be 18.98 million tons, down 11% from 2023, but above the five-year average of 18.34 million tons reports Statistics Canada’s September 16 forecast.

This lower production is expected to be driven by lower yields, which are projected to fall 0.8% to 38.4 bushels per acre, and harvested area is expected to decline 0.4% to 21.8 million acres.

Saskatchewan will produce 0.4% less canola than in 2023 to 10.3 million tons. Yields in the region will increase 1.9% to 37.7 bushels per acre in 2024, while harvested area is expected to decrease 2.3% to 12.0 million acres.

In Alberta, production will decline 1.7% to 5.5 million tons. This will be the result of expected lower yields ( -2.0% to 38.3 bushels per acre), while harvested area is expected to remain unchanged (6.3 million acres).

In Manitoba, yields are expected to decrease 7.4% to 41.0 bushels per acre, while harvested area could increase 5.7% to 3.3 million acres, resulting in a 2.2% decrease in production to 3.1 million tons.

Soybeans in Canada will yield 7.2 million tons, up 3.1% from last year. Yields are forecast to rise 1.1% to 46.4 bushels per acre and harvested area is forecast to increase 2.0% to 5.7 million acres.

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Tags: Canada, rapeseed, crop forecast