Can Brazil meet global corn export demand?

The global corn market remains under pressure following the January 2026 USDA WASDE report, which delivered a bearish outlook by projecting higher yields and ending stocks in the United States. This has weakened expectations for stronger domestic demand and shifted market attention toward weather conditions in South America—particularly Brazil, which plays a decisive role in global supply and price dynamics.

A key factor in the market balance is Brazil’s second corn crop, known as safrinha, which is planted after the soybean harvest in late February and early March. This crop represents the country’s main export potential and typically reaches international markets in August, a critical window when importers seek supplies ahead of the new U.S. harvest.

According to USDA estimates, Brazil is expected to produce 131 million tonnes of corn in the 2025/26 season, with only about 33 million tonnes coming from the first crop currently in the fields. The remaining 98 million tonnes have yet to be planted, leaving future supply highly exposed to weather risks. Meanwhile, Brazil’s domestic corn consumption is projected at 96.5 million tonnes, including 66 million tonnes for animal feed, meaning a substantial share of production will stay within the country.

Brazilian corn exports are forecast at 43 million tonnes, which—combined with domestic consumption—pushes total demand to around 139.5 million tonnes, exceeding expected production. A similarly tight balance is seen in Argentina, where the projected crop is largely absorbed by domestic needs and export commitments.

Analysts warn that any weather-related disruptions during the safrinha growing season could trigger a rise in global corn prices as early as spring. At the same time, they caution against overly bullish expectations: if Brazil achieves “good enough” harvest results, the market may remain under pressure and prices may struggle to post a significant recovery.

Tags: Brazil, crop forecast, corn