Bumper harvests boost global grain stocks – IGC

With better-than-expected harvests taking place in many parts of the world, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecast record grain production in the 2025-26 season.

The IGC’s latest Grain Market Report, released on Nov. 20, projected output for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) to increase by 5% over the previous year, with year-on-year increases for all grains.

“The larger global harvest will more than compensate for the tightest opening stocks in 10 seasons, boosting overall supply by 3%, to an all-time peak (2.43 billion tonnes),” the IGC said.

The increase will be needed as the Council sees total grains consumption rising by 2% in 2025-26, to a new high of 2.4 billion tonnes due to higher food, feed and industrial uses.

Wheat production was revised higher by 3 million tonnes over the previous month’s forecast to 830 million tonnes. If realized, it would be an increase of 31 million tonnes (4%) over the 2024-25 total.

While the forecast for global maize (corn) production increased only slightly (1 million tonnes) month on month, a 5% year-on-year increase to a record 1.298 billion tonnes is anticipated by the IGC.

Conversely, global soybean output was revised lower by 2 million tonnes in the November report. Production is seen dropping by 3 million tonnes year on year to 426 million tonnes.

However, the IGC noted that the projected figure is “well ahead of the recent average, including a potentially record outturn in Brazil.”

“With consumption seen at a new peak (431 million tonnes), on gains in Asia and the Americas in particular, inventories could tighten by around 5 million tonnes year on year,” the IGC said.

After slumping to a five-year low in September, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index rose for the second consecutive month, climbing to a 12-month high of 222 in November, the Council said.

Led by a 7% increase in soybeans, but with average wheat and maize fob prices also stronger, the IGC GOI notched a 4% monthly gain.

Rice prices fell slightly in November and have plummeted 28% year on year, according to the report.

Tags: corn, soybean, wheat, stocks, crop forecast