Bulgaria. Farmers again sit on grain and refuse to sell

“The spring crop harvest season has come to an end and it is now safe to say that the extremely negative crop forecasts in Bulgaria this year have unfortunately come true. The hottest and driest summer on record resulted in a sharp, double-digit drop in yields and production of both corn and sunflower seed, with corn being particularly hard hit. Given that Bulgaria is among the key exporters of both commodities to the EU, it is expected that this decline may affect the overall market conditions in the region, especially for sunflower seeds,” LVVN Attaché reported, citing Bulgaria’s Ministry of Agriculture.

The data from the Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture shows that corn yields fell 35% year-on-year and 50% from the 5-year average, to 2.73 tons/ha. With a 5% reduction in acreage, this season’s corn crop is 38% lower than the 2023 crop of nearly 1.4 million tons. Even at this early stage, as of the end of October, export volumes are only about 8,400 tons – just 7% of shipments for the same period last year. Stocks stand at 1.4 million tons – 27% less than in 2023.

Spring crops in Bulgaria have provided significantly higher profitability than traditional winter wheat, and grain producers are steadily increasing acreage. In addition, Bulgaria has established large corn and sunflower seed processing facilities, transforming the country from a raw material exporter to a key supplier of processed corn and high value-added oilseed products. However, due to climate change, Bulgaria’s summer seasons are becoming increasingly dry and hot, presenting a growing challenge for producers.

Although significant progress has been made in adapting spring crops to the climate – more suitable seed varieties and cultivation practices such as no-tillage – irrigation remains the biggest limiting factor that makes them vulnerable to unfavorable summer heat. Throughout the nineties and noughties, much of the basic irrigation infrastructure in the country fell into disrepair or was completely decommissioned, resulting in irrigated areas now being a fraction of what they used to be, including in key spring crop production areas.

It is for this reason that the rehabilitation of basic irrigation infrastructure is the top priority of the Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture and Food in its domestic policy. Bulgaria has ambitious plans to quadruple its irrigated area in the coming years. If realized, spring crops will be one of the biggest beneficiaries with the potential for significant production growth, which should strengthen Bulgaria’s position on the European map of cereals and oilseeds.

In contrast to spring crops, Bulgaria has another bountiful winter wheat harvest in 2024 – almost 6.8 million tons. However, the situation for Bulgarian wheat producers this year has not been easy. Global oversupply and the normalization of regional supply chains after the first phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war have kept prices relatively low, prompting Bulgarian producers and traders to refrain from selling. At the end of October, 4.6 million tons were in storage, 68% of the 2024 crop and about 12% more than in the same period a year ago. This strategy has become popular in the country in the last 10-15 years, reaching a peak in 2022, when the Russian attack on Ukrainians began, with a sharp rise in grain prices, and then Bulgarian producers and traders decided to massively hold back their crops. Thus, a surge in sales of Bulgarian grain can be expected in the second quarter of 2025, as storage facilities will have to be cleared before the new harvest.

Tags: Bulgaria, grain, prices, wheat, crop forecast