Brazil’s soybean production forecasts continue to rise

Forecasts for the 2025/26 season point to further growth in Brazilian soybean production, according to international consulting agencies. Celeres Consultoria estimates a harvest of 177.2 million tons, 2.5% more than in the record 2024/25 season. Soybean exports are estimated to increase to 110 million tons compared to 106 million tons in the previous season.

Increasing excess supply in Brazil and uncertainty in US foreign policy are contributing to the growth of oilseed exports in 2025-2026. Brazil remains the world’s largest soybean producer after the US. At the same time, the Trump administration announced the introduction of a 50% tariff on certain Brazilian goods from August 6, although an exception is made for critical import items.

StoneX forecasts soybean production in Brazil to grow by 5.6% in the 2025/26 season to 178.2 million tons, driven by a 2% increase in planted area and higher yields. Yields are expected to improve, particularly in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which suffered significant damage from flooding last year.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA), soybean acreage in Brazil is expected to reach 49.1 million hectares in the 2025/26 season, up 3% from last year. Soybean processing will reach 58 million tons, also reflecting increased production and processing capacity.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast