Brazil’s grain production to grow 27 percent by 2034

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that grain production could reach 379 million tons.

Brazil’s agricultural production forecast for the next ten years shows significant growth in major crops such as soybeans, winter harvest corn, rice, beans, sorghum and wheat. Perennial crops such as coffee, cocoa and fruits also show steady growth during this period.

Such data are reported in the study “Brazilian Agribusiness Forecasts 20203/2024-2033/2034”, conducted by the Secretariat of Agricultural Policies of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa), with the support of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa).

During this period, the planted area will increase by 15.5%, reaching 92.2 million high-yielding hectares, as the study indicates.

According to Silvio Farnese, director of Mapa’s Economic Analysis and Public Policy Unit, “it is relevant to consider that an important part of the increase in cultivated area will be supported by the Program for the Rehabilitation of Degraded Areas, with credit lines favoring the productive rehabilitation of areas that currently show low yields.”

Soybeans (25.1%), winter crop corn (24.9%), wheat (18.4%), rice (+20.3%) and beans (+38.1%) will see the largest increases in acreage.

Rice production is expected to increase by 3.1 million tons to reach 13.7 million tons to meet consumption estimated at 10.8 million tons, with room for the production sector’s export commitments, which currently stand at around 1.3 million tons.

Corn production will reach 153.1 million tons, with a growth of 32.3% and an increase of 37.4 million tons mainly in the winter harvest, following the practice adopted by Brazilian producers of sowing following soybeans. Consumption is estimated at 109.8 million tons, an increase of 30.4% in line with the growing use of the grain for ethanol production, which currently processes 17.0 million tons.

Soybeans will continue to have the highest production among cereals, estimated to reach 199.4 million tons, increasing by 52.0 million tons, while soybean meal will reach 48.5 million tons, increasing by 8.36 million tons over the next 10 years.

As for coffee, estimates show a 31.9% increase in production, reaching 72.0 million bags, that is, an increase in supply of 17.0 million bags, which will cover the increase in consumption, rising to 27.0 million bags, and exports, estimated at 45.0. million bags.

In terms of livestock production, the largest growth will be in poultry (+28.4%), followed by pork (+27.5%) and beef (+10.2%). Consumption will have lower growth: poultry consumption will grow by 26.9%, pork by 25.4% and beef by 0.6%.

Exports of these products are estimated to be planned at 29.7% for poultry products, 22.5% for pork and 27.1% for beef. This scenario is reinforced by the various agreements concluded by the Brazilian government with consuming countries, which represent the consolidation of existing markets and new countries that will import Brazilian meat.

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Tags: grain, Brazil, wheat, crop forecast, corn