Brazil’s grain harvest remains on record pace

With Brazil’s planted area and yields both projected to grow in marketing year 2024-25, the National Supply Company (Conab) continued to raise its outlook for record grain production amid favorable weather conditions.

In its eighth Harvest update released May 15, Conab projected total grain production at 332.9 million tonnes for 2024-25, up 35.4 million tonnes from the previous year and 2.6 million tonnes from April’s report. Planted area is seen growing 2.2% to 81.7 million hectares while yields are projected to recover 9.5% year on year to 4,074 kilograms/hectare.

Soybeans stand out with an estimated harvest volume of 168.3 million tonnes, the largest ever crop recorded in the country’s history, Conab said. The soybean harvest already has reached 98.5% of the sown area. The prospect of record production will slightly increase exports in 2024-25, approaching 106 million tonnes for the world’s top supplier.

Corn production is estimated at 126.9 million tonnes, an increase of 9.9% compared to the 2023-24 season. The first crop has been harvested in 77.6% of the sown area, with estimated production of 24.7 million tonnes, while the second crop has been sown with 99.8 million tonnes forecast.

Domestic consumption of corn is estimated by Conab to increase to 89.3 million tonnes for 2024-25, based on the prospect of growth in corn ethanol production amid greater domestic availability of the grain in the second half of 2025. Exports projections were maintained at 34 million tonnes, and ending stocks were expected to be 7.1 million tonnes.

Production of rice, an important part of the Brazilian diet, is projected at 12.1 million tonnes, an increase of 14.8% over the previous year. The anticipated improvement reflects a larger sown area, reaching 1.7 million hectares, combined with a 7.4% improvement yields at 7,071 kg/ha.

Among winter crops, wheat sowing has begun in the states of the central-west, southeast and Paraná. Conab’s production estimate for the cereal is 8.3 million tonnes for the 2025 harvest, an increase of 4.6% year on year.

Tags: grain, Brazil, crop forecast