Brazil’s grain crop continues record climb

Brazil’s forecasted grain production continues to rise, reaching 328.3 million tonnes for marketing year 2024-25, an increase of 30.6 million tonnes (10.3%) year on year in the latest National Supply Company (Conab) report.

The forecast reflects both an increase in the planted area, estimated at 81.6 million hectares, and a recovery in average crop yield, projected at 4,023 kilos per hectare, Conab said in its sixth Harvest Update released March 13. If realized, Conab said this will be the largest grains volume to be harvested in the history of its survey series.

Soybeans are continuing a robust season, with Conab estimating production of 167.4 million tonnes, up 13.3% from 2023-24. The harvest index is at 60.9% of the area, higher than the same period in the previous season ahead of the five-year average.

“After a slower start to the harvest due to planting delays and excessive rainfall in January, the reduction in rainfall in February led to a significant increase in the harvested area,” Caonab said.

Yields so far have exceeded initial expectations in important producing states, such as Mato Grosso, Goiás and Minas Gerais, Conab said. However, in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, inconsistent rainfall has begun to affect the crop’s production potential in almost the entire state.

With the soybean harvest well underway, the planting of the second corn crop already has reached 83.1% of the expected area, Conab said. While that is behind last year’s pace, it remains ahead of the five-year average. The planted area is expected to grow 1.9% to 16.75 million hectares. Productivity is estimated at 5,703 kilos per hectare on favorable weather conditions.

As a result, production in the second corn crop alone is projected at 95.5 million tonnes, up 5.8% from 2023-24. The positive outlook for this crop is expected to push total corn production for Brazil to 122.8 million tonnes, an increase o 6.1% year on year.

Rice also saw a 6.5% increase in the planted area, reaching 1.7 million hectares. Good weather conditions have been favoring crops, allowing a 7.3% recovery in average crop productivity, estimated at 7,063 kilos per hectare.

If current conditions continue, the production estimate would reach 12.1 million tonnes. Harvest rates are higher than the same period of the previous harvest in almost all major producing states; only Tocantins has a harvest rate slightly below the previous cycle.

The arrival of the rice harvest on the market continues the downward trend in prices paid to producers. Additionally, the increase in production estimated by Conab guarantees domestic supply and enables a recovery in carryover stocks even with an expected increase in grain exports.

Exports are estimated to reach 2 million tonnes, and carryover stocks at the end of the 2024-25 harvest will recover to an estimated 1.4 million tonnes at the end of February 2026, Conab said.

Tags: soybean, crop forecast, corn, Brazil