Brazil’s corn, soy outlook trimmed

 The forecast for corn and soybean production in Brazil was trimmed from January’s outlook as El Niño’s adverse effects have impacted the crops, Reuters reported, citing data from Brazilian crop agency Conab.

Conab lowered Brazil’s 2023-24 soybean crop projection to 149.4 million tonnes from 155.2 million in its January report. Total corn production was pegged at 113.7 million tonnes, below January’s 117.6 million.

If realized, February’s soybean production estimate would be a drop of 3.4% compared to the 2022-23 cycle, according to Conab, which had projected Brazil’s soybean harvest at 162 million tonnes when the season began.

A lack of rain at the onset of the season in Brazil’s center-west, southeast and Matopiba regions, followed by irregular and unevenly spread rains, took a toll, the agency said.

Conab cited dry spells lasting more than 20 days in some areas, in addition to high temperatures, as factors spoiling the soy and first-corn production in central Brazil.

First-corn production, which this season will represent about 21% of total output, also faced excess rainfall in the South of Brazil, Conab said. Second-corn production, which is done after soybeans are harvested in the same areas, is expected to drop by nearly 14% from last year, to about 88 million tonnes, on a smaller planted area and weather risk, according to Conab data.

Brazil is by far the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, having surpassed the United States in those categories in recent years, with most of the exports expected to go to the world’s biggest importer, China. Brazil overtook the United States as the world’s largest corn exporter after a record harvest in 2023.

Tags: corn, Brazil, soybean, crop forecast