Brazil’s corn ethanol boom drives global sugar prices to four-year low

A rapid expansion of corn-based ethanol production in Brazil is having an unexpected impact on global markets — a sharp drop in sugar prices. As sugar-cane processors shift away from biofuel production, they are diverting a record share of their harvest to sugar, pushing global prices to the lowest level in four years.

The trend highlights growing pressures on Brazil’s once-dominant sugar-cane industry. Companies such as Raizen SA and Sao Martinho SA traditionally move between sugar and ethanol output depending on profitability. However, rising competition from cheaper corn ethanol is forcing many mills to remain focused on sugar — even if prices stay weak.

Analysts expect Brazil to produce a record 43 million metric tons of sugar from next year’s crop, up 4.6% from the previous season. The global sugar market is also shifting from last season’s deficit to a surplus of 2.8 million tons, which has already dragged sugar futures down by about 22% this year — the biggest annual decline since 2017.

Demand for ethanol remains strong, but an increasing share is now produced from corn. Corn-based output is forecast to account for 32% of Brazil’s fuel ethanol production in the season starting in April, up from 23% currently. With corn ethanol costing less to produce, it continues to erode the market share of sugar-cane biofuel.

The pressure is evident in market performance: shares of leading sugar-cane processors — including Raizen, Jalles Machado and Sao Martinho — have slumped significantly this year. Industry experts say Brazilian mills will have “no other choice” but to keep maximizing sugar output, despite the risk of further price weakness.

Tags: corn, Brazil, prices, sugar, ethanol