Brazil's corn crop forecasts continue to rise thanks to favorable weather

In the second (safrinha) corn crop areas in Brazil, periodic rainfall continues, which has a positive effect on the condition of the crops. Yields remain high, although the rains and lower temperatures have slowed the pace of harvesting – in particular, in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, only about 2% of the area has been threshed by the end of May. However, the first crop has already been harvested on 80% of the area.

A new wave of precipitation is forecast for next week, which will further improve conditions for crop formation.

In a May report, state agency CONAB raised its forecast for total corn production in the 2024/25 season to 126.8 million tons (+2.13 million tons compared to April). However, this estimate remains lower than the USDA’s May forecast of 130 million tons.

CONAB harvest distribution:

• second harvest (safrinha): 99.8 million tons
• first harvest: 24.7 million tons
•  third harvest: over 2 million tons

Consulting agency AgRural also raised its estimate for corn production in the 2024/25 MY from 124.8 to 128.5 million tons due to improved yields in a number of states.

The analytical agency StoneX made an even more ambitious revision:

• second harvest production forecast — 106.1 million tons
• total corn production forecast — 134 million tons
• first harvest — 25.7 million tons
• third harvest — just over 2 million tons

Domestic corn consumption in Brazil is also expected to grow. Due to the active development of corn ethanol production, the consumption forecast has been adjusted from 87 to 89 million tons, indicating an increasing role of domestic processing in the demand structure.

Current structure of corn production in Brazil:

• second harvest (safrinha) — 78.7%
• first harvest — 19.4%
• third harvest — 1.9%

The expected increase in the corn harvest in Brazil will increase competition with American corn and put additional pressure on world feed grain prices in the coming months.

Tags: corn, Brazil, crop forecast