Brazil’s colossal soybean crop in 2025 will drive down prices

Brazil is preparing for a record soybean crop of 169 million tons in the 2024/25 season, which could further depress already low soybean prices on the world market, according to US industry publication Farms.com. The increase is due to an expected expansion of the country’s soybean acreage to 47 million hectares.

Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, accounts for nearly 60% of global soybean exports. With this year’s crop expected to be the largest in the country’s history, the market will be oversupplied with soybeans, exacerbating the current oversupply.

USDA forecasts that global soybean stocks will reach an all-time high in 2024/25, increasing by nearly 22 million tons from the previous year. This surge in supply, driven mainly by production in Brazil, is likely to further depress soybean prices, with US soybean futures previously falling to $9.55 per bushel in August 2024, the lowest level in four years.

China, the largest importer of Brazilian soybeans, is likely to benefit from these low prices. The country has increased exports of the beans by 72% to 15.9 million tons since the beginning of the year. However, for producers in other countries, especially the US, competing with Brazil’s abundant supply will be difficult.

Brazil’s dominance in the soybean market is further strengthened by its expanding export infrastructure. Brazil has nearly doubled its soybean export capacity over the past decade, especially through northern ports, which now handle about 35% of the country’s total soybean exports, up from 23% five years ago.

Crop expansion has been particularly notable in northern Brazil, where soybean plantings have increased nearly sevenfold over the past 15 years. The increase in production, despite the problems caused by the ongoing drought, will strengthen Brazil’s position as a world leader in agricultural exports.

Tags: Brazil, prices, soybean, crop forecast