Brazilian soybean exports in January are likely to fall short of the forecast of Anec – traders

Some Brazilian traders argue that January soybean exports will likely fall short of the forecast released by grain exporters association Anec on Tuesday, while Anec told Reuters it was revising its estimate of 3.8 million metric tons of shipments this month.

In a statement, Anec said its monthly estimate, significantly higher than the 1.1 million tons shipped in January 2025, was based on shipping schedules. Actual volumes are likely to slow in late January, the association added, so the total could be closer to 3 million tons.

Most of the soybeans exported by Brazil this month were planted in 2024 and harvested in 2025, Anec said, adding that logistical issues could also impact January exports.

One trader, speaking on condition of anonymity, estimated that Brazil will ship only about 2 million metric tons of soybeans this month, suggesting that talk of an early harvest is exaggerated.

China, the world’s largest soybean importer and Brazil’s main buyer, also increased its purchases of U.S. soybeans after reaching a trade truce with Washington in October.

According to Brazilian government data, Brazil shipped 1.307 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, compared to about 1 million in the same period in 2025.

“The market was prepared for quick shipments in anticipation of an early soybean harvest,” said a second trader. “But harvesting is proceeding at a normal pace, not ahead of schedule, so shipments will likely be delayed until February.”

According to consulting firm Hedgepoint Global, about 3% of Brazil’s soybean acreage had been harvested as of last Friday, compared to 1.1% last year.

Tags: export, Brazil, soybean