Brazil slows down exports: a chance for American corn

The global corn market has taken an unexpected turn this season. Despite a record harvest in Brazil, its exports are lagging behind the pace of previous years. At the same time, analysts believe that this delay could open up new opportunities for the United States on the global market in the fall.

In August, the USDA left its forecast for corn production in Brazil unchanged at 132 million tons, while the state agency Conab raised its estimate to 137 million tons. Some local consultants are even talking about 150 million tons, thanks to record yields in the key states of Mato Grosso, Goiás and Paraná. Such a difference in estimates indicates the potential for a new record harvest.

However, domestic factors are holding back exports. First, China has reduced purchases, having large domestic stocks. Second, domestic consumption is growing, in particular due to the development of corn ethanol production. Finally, ports remain congested with soybean shipments, which is slowing corn shipments.

This presents a short-term “window of opportunity” for the U.S. The USDA has raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in the 2025/26 marketing year from 2.675 billion bushels to 2.875 billion bushels. If Brazil fails to ramp up shipments quickly, U.S. suppliers could be able to capture demand from key buyers in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

However, the situation remains uncertain. If Brazil begins active shipments later this year, competition for the U.S. will increase. Additional volatility could be introduced into the market by new U.S. yield revisions, tariff policy changes, and China’s behavior in the import market.

Tags: corn, Brazil, USA