Brazil may boost soy exports to China after record 2025 harvest

Brazil, which harvested a record soybean crop in 2025, may increase exports of the oilseed to China in 2026 amid lower shipments from Argentina, despite stronger competition from U.S. farmers, Hedgepoint Global Markets analyst Luiz Fernando Roque said.

According to the Brazilian government, Brazil shipped 85.4 million tons of soybeans to China in 2025, an 18% increase from 2024. Reduced U.S. shipments allowed Brazilian producers to capture a larger share of the Chinese market, which remains the world’s largest soybean importer.

Analysts forecast that China will raise soybean imports by 4 million tons to 112 million tons in 2026. This additional demand could be supplied by either Brazil or the U.S. Argentina, in turn, is reducing exports due to a smaller crop and focusing on domestic processing for soymeal and oil.

In 2025, the U.S. share of soybean shipments to China fell to 15% from 21% the previous year, while Brazil’s share rose to 73.6%, and Argentina’s share increased to 7% from 4%, according to Hedgepoint and Chinese government data.

Experts note that reduced Argentine volumes already create an additional 4–5 million tons of soy available for U.S. and Brazilian exporters. This gives Brazil an opportunity to strengthen its position in the Chinese market, despite increased U.S. shipments.

Tags: China, Brazil, soybean, Argentina