Brazil faces smallest wheat crop in five years as farmers cut plantings

Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest their smallest wheat crop in five years as producers scale back plantings due to weak margins and competition from other winter crops. According to the national crop agency Conab, wheat production in the 2026/27 season is forecast at about 6.9 million tonnes, down 12.3% from the previous year and the lowest level since 2021.

A similar estimate was released earlier by agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado, which projected the harvest at 6.86 million tonnes. Planting in Brazil’s main wheat-producing regions is expected to begin in April, while harvesting typically starts in September. Brazil is the second-largest wheat producer in South America.

Safras & Mercado estimates that planted area in the 2026/27 season could fall to 1.99 million hectares, down 15.5% from the previous season and nearly 40% lower than four years ago. Conab expects a more moderate decline of about 5.2%, with the area reaching 2.32 million hectares.

Analysts say the main factor discouraging farmers is the worsening ratio between wheat prices and production costs. Rising fertilizer prices, particularly for nitrogen fertilizers, have significantly increased the cost of growing the crop.

Weather risks are also weighing on farmers’ decisions. Producers are concerned about the possible impact of the El Niño weather pattern later this year, which could bring excessive rainfall to southern Brazil and increase the risk of quality problems. High insurance costs, limited access to credit and financial losses in recent seasons have also reduced farmers’ willingness to expand wheat planting.

Tags: Brazil, wheat, crop forecast