Brazil faces challenges in exporting record corn crop

Brazil, one of the world’s top corn exporters, is bracing for a challenging 2024/25 export season due to logistical challenges, weaker demand from China and increased competition from the United States, analysts at Reuters said. While corn exports are expected to increase this year, competition for port capacity amid a record soybean harvest could pose significant challenges. Corn exports are expected to reach 42 million tonnes, up from 38.5 million tonnes last season, according to estimates by consultancy StoneX.

The government forecasts that Brazil’s corn production will reach 128.3 million tonnes this season, up 11% from the previous season. However, logistical challenges at ports could complicate exports, especially if Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans remains strong in the second half of 2025. StoneX analyst Rafael Bulaskoski noted that China has cut corn imports after its own record harvest, forcing Brazil to look for new buyers in other markets.

The United States, which is also forecasting a record corn harvest, will become a serious competitor for Brazil in foreign markets. According to Bulaskoski, despite the export surplus, finding enough buyers will be difficult. Itau BBA analyst Francisco Queiroz noted that Brazil will rely on demand from countries such as Iran, Egypt and Vietnam, but these markets are not able to replace the volumes that China previously supplied.

Increased competition and logistical constraints could affect export revenues for Brazil, which remains a key player in the global grain market. Analysts emphasize that effective management of port capacity and diversification of sales markets will be crucial for the success of the export season. If Brazil fails to adapt to the new conditions, it could lead to a build-up of inventories and lower prices on the domestic market.

To overcome these challenges, Brazil needs to invest in modernizing its logistics infrastructure and actively promote its products in new markets. Successfully addressing these issues will allow the country to maintain its position as a leading corn exporter, despite global competition and reduced demand from key importers. Analysts hope that favorable weather conditions and strategic planning will help mitigate the negative impact of the current challenges.

Tags: Brazil, corn