Brazil expects another record-high soybean harvest

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Information Service (FAS), Brazil is poised for another record soybean harvest in the 2025-26 season, with exports forecast to reach a new peak driven by demand from China.

As of the second half of December, soybean planting has been completed in more than 98.5% of the total projected area in most regions, the FAS reports.

Soybean planting area is forecast to reach 49.1 million hectares, up 3.1% from last year. This expansion in planting area is expected to increase production to 177 million tonnes, up 3.2% from the 2024-25 forecast.

Exports will total 113 million tonnes, up 3.7% from the 2024-25 forecast. Much of the export growth in 2024-2025 is expected to come from demand from China. Shipments to China from January to November increased by 16.5% compared to the previous season.

Soybean oil production for Brazil is estimated at 12.3 million tonnes, 4.1% higher than the 2024-2025 forecast. The main driver of this increase is the increase in the mandatory biodiesel blending requirement from B14 to B15, which took effect in August 2025. A further increase in the blending mandate to B16 in March of this year is also possible.

The increased biofuel production is expected to boost domestic demand for soybean oil, which accounts for approximately 75% of biodiesel production in Brazil.

According to FAS, the introduction of the new mandatory use of B15 is expected to lead to the additional processing of over 7 million tons of soybean oil for biodiesel production—a 9% increase compared to soybean oil consumption in this segment in 2024.

Soybean processing will yield 46.1 million tons of soybean meal, over 52% of which will be exported, totaling 24 million tons.

It was previously reported that soybeans fell to third place in Brazilian shipments to Russia by the end of the year. Since the start of the season, shipments of South American beans have fallen by 63%, reaching an all-time low of 150,000 tons.

Tags: soybean, crop forecast, Brazil