Brazil could harvest up to 179.8 mln tons of soybeans in 2026

Safras & Mercado released its first estimate for the 2025/26 soybean crop in Brazil. The figures indicate the potential for a new record production, estimated at around 179.87 mln tons—a huge crop, supported primarily by the expected further increase in cultivated area. However, there are several points of concern, such as the high production cost and uncertainty regarding the actual pace of expansion in the planted area.

The estimated acreage growth is only 1.2%, a more moderate increase compared to previous years. In the South, for example, practically no increase in area is expected, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, which is expected to maintain its current production size. After successive crop losses and high costs, there are concerns about the adoption of technologies, which could make plantations more vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. In Paraná, no significant expansion is currently projected either.

In the Midwest region, the outlook is more positive. States such as Mato Grosso, Goiás and even Mato Grosso do Sul are seeing excellent productivity in the 2024/25 season. Despite high costs, relatively stable prices and good technical performance should support continued expansion of planted area. In Minas Gerais and São Paulo, the trend is toward growth, but the main focus will be the level of technology applied. With rising credit costs and rising defaults, productivity may be lower than last season’s. Furthermore, climate risk remains an issue.

In Matopiba (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia), significant growth in the soybean area is expected, driven by good agronomic and commercial prospects. It is worth remembering that Brazil still has vast areas of degraded pastureland that can be converted to cropland, especially in agricultural frontier regions such as the Northeast, which maintains the potential for structural expansion of soybean cultivation in the coming years. For the 2024/25 crop, there were some adjustments, with production revised to 171.9 mln tons. Although slightly below previous estimates, this figure still represents an extremely robust soybean supply on the market. The revisions focused on specific areas and yields in some states, reflecting small regional adjustments.

Another relevant point was the update to the comprehensive supply and demand picture. Exports were adjusted to 104 mln tons, considering a relatively optimistic scenario until the end of the year. Crushing was adjusted to 57 mln tons. With these figures, carryover stocks could reach approximately 9.4 mln tons—or even higher if crushing demand weakens or exports disappoint in the second half of the year.

For the 2025/26 crop, current expectations point to a potential production of 179.87 mln tons, with exports estimated at around 108 mln and processing potentially reaching up to 59 mln tons. In this scenario, the projected final stocks approach 19 mln tons, which, if confirmed, could exert strong pressure on export premiums next year, with the possibility of extremely negative premiums in some trading windows.

Tags: estimate, exports, Brazil, soybeans, Production, crop, acreage