Brazil continues to increase soybean exports, pushing the US out of the global market.
Large Brazilian soybean supplies will continue to limit US export capacity in 2026, according to experts at Oil World (Germany).
Experts estimate that Brazilian soybean carryover stocks at the beginning of January 2026 are estimated at 7-8 million tons, and further increases in production are likely to boost Brazil’s export potential to at least 115 million tons in 2026, compared to 108.3 million tons expected for the current year and 92.4 million tons a year earlier.
Specifically, a record soybean harvest in Brazil is expected to be harvested from an area of 50.5 million hectares (+1.7 million hectares annually), totaling 178 million tons.
According to Conab, citing data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce, and Services (MDIC), Brazil exported a record 104.79 million tons of soybeans worth $42 billion from January to November 2025, exceeding the export volume for all of 2021 (101.87 million tons).
CoBank experts previously noted that soybean sales to China are growing, but Brazilian beans remain significantly cheaper, meaning a return to historical US export volumes is unlikely.
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