Brazil braces for soybean price rise amid US trade war

US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China will give Brazilian agricultural exporters an opportunity to take an even bigger share of the Chinese market at the expense of American farmers, but it could also fuel Brazil’s already high food inflation, Reuters reports.

China responded swiftly this week to new US tariffs announced by Trump, increasing duties by 10% and 15% respectively, covering $21 billion worth of American farm goods, including meat and soybeans.

Rising tensions between the US and China will likely prompt China to buy more grains and beans from Brazil, which could reduce demand for commodities and, therefore, prices in the US, while increasing demand and prices in Brazil, analysts say. More exports will mean less domestic supply, which will increase the cost of meal as animal feed at local meat processing plants.

Brazilian soybean prices are already rising. The premium at local ports reached a season high this week, local traders say.

According to OleoScope, on 06.03.2025 the price of soybeans (FOB Brazil) for March delivery was $403.57/t, which is $11.44/t higher than the previous value of 05.03.2025 ($392.13/t). This is the maximum value of this price.

Tags: prices, soybean, Brazil