Black Sea wheat intensifies global competition as Poland explores new export markets
Global wheat prices are showing an upward trend, with Chicago futures rising nearly 3%, supported by drought conditions in some U.S. wheat-growing regions. At the same time, the market remains under pressure from ample supply, contributing to generally bearish sentiment among traders.
Despite the abundance of wheat globally, financial investors are increasing their activity. According to Euronext data, they expanded their net long positions last week, indicating growing interest in agricultural commodities as a hedge against inflation.
Competition on the export market is intensifying among key suppliers. Relatively high prices in the U.S. are opening opportunities for alternative origins, particularly from Europe and the Black Sea region. In this context, reports have emerged of Polish wheat being sold to the United States, an unusual destination for Polish exports.
Traders report that two cargoes of milling wheat from Poland were sold to a U.S. buyer, with shipments scheduled for August and October. Meanwhile, Russian wheat continues to compete aggressively in other markets, with market talk suggesting potential sales to Mexico, where it is competing with Argentine supplies as one of the cheapest offers.
Black Sea wheat remains highly competitive on price. Russian, Ukrainian, and Argentine wheat with 11.5% protein for April shipment is quoted at around $231–234/mt FOB. Romanian wheat is slightly higher at $235–237/mt, while French wheat is priced at $239–241/mt. Accelerating exports from Russia are further intensifying competition in an already well-supplied global market.
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