Black Sea vegoil market: Russia’s duty shock opens a window, but raw oilseed supply remains weak

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Russia’s higher sunflower oil and meal export duties make a short-term reshuffle in the Black Sea market. The immediate effect is declining export margins for russian crushers, shipments are weakening, and pressure on domestic sunflower seed prices is rising.

This is opportunity for alternative exporters, first of all Ukraine, as demand may shift from russian origin in April and May. These trends are moderately supportive for sunflower oil and meal global prices, with limited bullish effect due to competition from other suppliers and still-cautious demand.

A broader conclusion is that government regulation increases in margin formation and in the competition between local crushers and oilseed exporters. That may result in bigger market volatility not only in the short but also in the long-term.

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Tags: margin, sunflower meal, duties, Ukraine, Russia, sunflower oil, export, prices