Black Sea milling wheat faces price pressures as buyers predict further declines

The Platts Milling Wheat Marker has experienced a further decline in price amid increasingly weak demand and improved yields in key producing areas.

Platts last assessed the marker at $232/mt on Sept. 1, at parity with the Russian wheat 12.5% FOB export price and representing a constant decline since Aug. 13, when the market was priced at $242/mt.

Launched in June, the MWM is calculated based on the most competitive daily end-of-day value from the largest wheat export region, the Black Sea. It includes Russian 12.5% protein, Ukrainian 11.5% and CVB 12.5% FOB wheat. Since the official start of the wheat harvest in July, the MWM has been priced at parity to the Russian 12.5% protein.

Buyers have said they expect further price drops, with some indicating they will hold off on purchases until Russian wheat prices reach the low $220s/mt.

One buyer said that “if Russia does not export big volumes soon, they will be forced to sell cheaply in the new year.” Another buyer also noted that local CPT bids have fallen to Rb16,000/mt, down from Rb17,000/mt in previous weeks.

Since the beginning of the marketing year in July, the Black Sea wheat market has faced challenges in lowering prices much faster than in previous seasons, typically driven by new crop oversupply and record exports. The average price for Russian wheat, for example, was at $220.50/mt last season from July to late August, compared with $235/mt this year, marked by delayed harvests, sluggish exports, and logistical difficulties.

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts estimate Russian wheat exports to have reached 5.2 million mt since July, a decrease from last season’s 8.5 million mt. For the marketing year 2025-26, exports are projected to increase to 43 million mt, up from 41.4 million mt last season, with production expected to rise to 83.2 million mt, compared with 81.6 million mt last year.

Narrow spread

The MWM also showed a narrow spread of just $3/mt between Russian 12.5% wheat and Ukrainian 11.5% wheat in August, compared with July’s $6.50/mt. Since July, Ukrainian wheat exports have included shipments to Egypt (462,000 mt), Indonesia (323,000 mt), Spain (253,000 mt), Vietnam (125,000 mt), and Algeria (114,000 mt), according to lineup data from traders, reaching 2.2 million mt, which is down from last year’s pace of 3.4 million mt due to harvest delays.

Some importers in Egypt have noted quality inconsistencies, with this season’s wheat exhibiting higher protein and gluten content but lower falling numbers, necessitating blending to achieve average quality. This variability has a complicated distribution and makes it difficult to satisfy local customers due to inconsistencies in the truckloads received. Commodity Insights analysts forecast that Ukrainian wheat exports will reach 15.5 million mt, with production at 22.8 million mt for the 2025-26 season. This is slightly lower than last season’s exports of 15.8 million mt and production of 23.3 million mt.

Buyers have reported similar quality concerns out of Romania and Bulgaria, with some wheat displaying over 2% bug damage and below 160 W content, or no W guarantee, priced at over a $2/mt discount to the standard 180 W content for the 12.5% protein.

In August, FOB CVB 12.5% was priced at a premium of around $4/mt to the MWM, while the 11.5% CVB wheat was priced at a discount of $1/mt. Romania has exported 1.7 million mt of wheat out of the port of Constanta since July, with key destinations including Saudi Arabia (344,000 mt), Nigeria (178,000 mt), Egypt (133,000 mt), Jordan (117,000 mt), Djibouti (102,000 mt), and Morocco (95,000 mt), according to lineup data from traders. Exporters said there were a couple of trades last week in the high $230s/mt for specification with lower W content than 180 for the 12.5% protein.

France has gained traction in the Middle East, particularly in Egypt, which has pressured Black Sea prices to decrease. Since the start of the marketing year in July, the port of Rouen in France has exported 1.48 million mt of grain, including over 600,000 mt of soft wheat, primarily to Morocco (234,000 mt), Egypt (98,000 mt), Portugal (64,000 mt), and West Africa (103,000 mt), according to lineup data from Haropa port. The FOB market was priced at a $6/mt discount to the MWM in August, amid a higher crop harvest than last year. Commodity Insights analysts forecast EU-27 exports will reach 32.4 million mt, up from 28 million mt last year, with production expected at 137.7 million mt, compared with 120 million mt last year.