Black Sea–Danube region: Oilseed crop outlook grows more optimistic

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Black Sea–Danube. In 2025/26, the overall Black Sea–Danube oilseed crop estimated at record (+2.4% vs 2024/25), with increase in planted areas and better weather y/y. Despite existing risks, the overall 2025 forecast is positive.

The largest area expansion is expected in russia — nearly +1 M ha. Hungary, Romania, and Serbia will also expand by around 50 K ha each.

• russia continues to restrict oilseed exports
• Ukraine remains a key EU supplier for rapeseed and soybean

Ukraine is a key player with one-third of the region’s total oilseed crop. In 2024 drought prevented a record harvest despite record area. In 2025, despite smaller acreage, higher yields are expected.

However, Ukrainian oilseeds were affected by weather extremes. Record yields are unlikely, but the late crops (sunflower and soybeans) look optimistically.

The regional sunflower seed crop estimated at record. Growing SFS output in the region may intensify export competition.

This season, nearly all of Ukraine’s SFS (98%) will be processed domestically. The same is expected in 2025/26.

Overall, the 2025/26 season forecast is optimistic for oilseeds harvest, though the market remains highly sensitive to weather, geopolitical shocks, and state regulation, which plays a key role in shaping supply–demand balance.

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Tags: soybean, Serbia, Black Sea region, sunseed, rapeseed, supply and demand balance, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, crop forecast, Turkey, Romania, EU