Barley prices in the EU surpass wheat amid surging global demand

Prices for feed barley in Europe have risen to match or even exceed milling wheat — an unusual development in the grain market. Traders report that this shift is driven by strong export demand and tightening supply, creating unexpectedly high costs for buyers, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East.

Although overall barley prices remain below last year’s levels due to abundant global grain supply, its relative strength against wheat has surprised the market. Rapid French shipments to China, limited farmer selling across the EU, and Turkey’s transition from exporter to importer after a poor harvest have tightened availability. As one German trader put it, “barley is currently like gold.”

According to market estimates, feed barley in Western Europe and the Baltic region is trading at USD 221–226 per tonne FOB for December loading — roughly equivalent to wheat. Black Sea barley is priced even higher at USD 227–229 per tonne FOB for Russian and Ukrainian origins. France has already shipped half of its projected non-EU barley exports for the 2025/26 season, including nearly 900,000 tonnes to China, and continues loading cargoes for Saudi Arabia.

Limited on-farm stocks and rising export premiums are supporting firm prices. Traders note that with recent purchases by Algeria, Tunisia, and Turkey, some sellers expect the market to gain another USD 10 per tonne by January. Supply tightness is further illustrated by Jordan’s recent tender for 120,000 tonnes, which received no offers.

Despite the current rally, some analysts believe the market may cool after Christmas. Large upcoming crops in Argentina and Australia are expected to ease global supply constraints and potentially cap further price increases.

Tags: EU, prices, barley