Australia’s wheat harvest forecast raised to near-record level

UkrAgroConsult

Analysts have lifted their estimates for Australia’s wheat production as better-than-expected yields in western growing regions offset drought losses in the south, Reuters reported. The forecast has increased by around 0.5 million tons since late September, with harvesting now underway and expected to continue until January.

The median estimate now points to a 35.7-million-ton wheat crop, which would be the third-largest on record. The strong Australian output will add to abundant global supplies, keeping Chicago benchmark wheat prices near their five-year lows.

Forecasts for barley production were also raised by around 400,000 tons to 15 million tons, which would mark a record high, while canola projections remained mostly unchanged at 6.5 million tons. Last year, Australia harvested 34.1 million tons of wheat, 13.3 million tons of barley, and 6.4 million tons of canola.

Soil moisture has been mostly favorable across Western Australia, northern New South Wales, and Queensland, but remains deficient in parts of South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales. Some southern farmers have cut crops for fodder after forecast rains failed to materialize. Analyst Rod Baker from Bendigo Agribusiness Insights noted that yield losses in southern regions are being balanced by stronger results in the west.

Analyst estimates for Australia’s main crops, mln tons:

Tags: barley, wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast, Australia