Australia’s canola exports decline amid stock depletion, hopes rise for China’s return

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia exported 102,064 tons of canola in June 2025, a sharp drop from 659,182 tons shipped in May, reflecting the depletion of current-crop stocks, with monthly exports unlikely to exceed 150,000 tons until new-crop supplies become available in November. For the first nine months of the 2024-25 shipping year, Australia exported 4.95 million tons of canola, with Belgium (1.41 million tons) and Germany (1.08 million tons) as the largest markets, while France led in June with 60,299 tons, followed by Japan (28,671 tons) and Bangladesh (6,363 tons).

Australian growers are focusing on forward canola sales, hopeful that China will resume purchases following its 75.8% tariff on Canadian canola, as China has not been a significant buyer of Australian canola since 2020 due to concerns over blackleg disease. Sam Napier, trading manager at Cargill Australia, noted at the Australian Grains Industry Conference (AGIC) 2025 that resuming trade with China depends on negotiations between Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and its Chinese counterpart, which could significantly boost the canola export industry, though local crushers may see limited benefits.

The Australian Oilseeds Federation estimated the 2025-26 canola crop at 5.97 million tons, down from 6.24 million tons in 2024-25, potentially impacting future export volumes. The prospect of China re-entering the market could revitalize Australia’s canola export sector, opening new opportunities for growth.

At AGIC 2025, the session “Australian Market Review – Outlook, Challenges and Opportunities” highlighted the importance of re-establishing trade with China, with panelists from Mauri Foods, Cargill Australia, LDC, and Riordan Grains discussing strategies to strengthen Australia’s position in the global oilseeds market. Australian canola remains a key component of the country’s agricultural exports, and successful negotiations with China could pave the way for a robust market recovery.

Tags: rapeseed, Australia, China, export