Australia raises wheat production forecast by 2.7 mln tons

The Australian government said Tuesday it expects to harvest 31.8 million tons of wheat in the coming harvest, raising its forecast by 2.7 million tons after rains in key growing regions.

Australia is the world’s third-largest wheat exporter and a larger harvest would boost global supply at a time when prices are near four-year lows.

The government also said Australia would produce about 700,000 tons more barley and 100,000 tons more canola than estimated three months ago.

“Winter crop production is forecast to rise to near-record levels in New South Wales and Queensland,” the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), part of the Department of Agriculture, said in a quarterly report.

Improving conditions in Western Australia mean yields there will be above average, but dry weather in South Australia and Victoria will result in below-average yields in those states, the report said.

ABARES’ wheat forecast is slightly above analysts’ projections and assumes production about 20 percent above both last season’s crop and the 10-year average.

ABARES said Australia is likely to produce 12.2 million tons of barley in the 2024/25 season, up 13% from 2023/24 and 7% above the 10-year average, and 5.5 million tons of canola, down 8% from last season but 22% above the 10-year average.

Three months ago, ABARES forecast 2024/25 production of 29.1 million tons of wheat, 11.5 million tons of barley and 5.4 million tons of canola.

However, ABARES said wheat exports are likely to fall to 20.9 million tons in 2024/25, down 7% from 2023-2024 but 10% above the 10-year average, as stocks of the record harvests of the early 2020s have been used up.

As for other crops, chickpea production is forecast to nearly triple to 1.3 million tons, thanks to robust planting after the largest consumer, India, suspended import duties.

According to ABARES, sorghum production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season, but cotton and rice production is expected to decline.

Tags: wheat, crop forecast, Australia