Australia increases wheat harvest forecast to 34.1 mln tons

Australia raised its estimate of national wheat production during the 2024/25 season by around 2.2 million metric tons on Tuesday and lifted its barley and canola estimates after harvest results exceeded expectations.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), part of the agriculture ministry, also said wheat production would fall in the upcoming 2025/26 season but remain above the long-term average.

Larger 2024/25 production in Australia, the world’s fourth-biggest wheat exporter, has eased concerns over global supplies and exerted downward pressure on prices.

Private sector analysts had already lifted their Australian wheat production estimates by between 1 million and 3 million tons after the harvest ended around the turn of the year.

“Yields were better than expected,” ABARES said in a quarterly report.

Total winter crop production in Western Australia and New South Wales was revised up 19% and 6% respectively from its last forecast in December, the report said.

Australia produced 34.1 million tons of wheat in 2024/25, 31% more than in 2023/24 season and 28% above the 10-year average, ABARES said.

The country produced 13.3 million tons of barley, up 23% year-on-year and 17% more than the 10-year average, and 5.9 million tons of canola, down 2% from the previous season but 31% above the 10-year average, according to the report.

The numbers are the latest of a series of upward revisions through the season as crops consistently outperformed expectations.

In December, ABARES said Australia would produce 31.9 million tons of wheat, 11.7 million tons of barley and 5.6 million tons of canola. In June, it predicted wheat production of 29.1 million tons.

Looking ahead to the 2025/26 season, ABARES forecast production of 30.5 million tons of wheat, 12.6 million tons of barley and 6 million tons of canola.

It estimated that the country would export 22.2 million tons of wheat in 2024/25 and 22.8 million tons in 2025/26.

Favourable conditions are meanwhile boosting the outlook for summer crops that will be harvested in the coming months.

ABARES lifted its forecast for sorghum production to 2.3 million tons from 2.1 million in December and its cotton lint projection to 1.1 million tons from 1 million but lowered its rice production forecast to 444,000 tons from 449,000 tons.