Australia forecasts record wheat and barley harvests

Favorable weather conditions and high yields are driving record grain production and exports in the 2025-2026 marketing year.

Australia is expected to deliver record wheat and barley harvests in the 2025-2026 marketing year, according to a recent report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

The FAS forecasts barley production at 15 million tonnes, 27% above the 10-year average of 11.8 million tonnes and 2 million tonnes above the previous forecast published three months ago.

“This reflects better-than-expected growing conditions in most regions of the country and strong early harvest yields in Queensland and northern New South Wales, where harvesting has already begun,” the report notes.

Australia is traditionally the world’s largest barley exporter and ranks among the top three producers. The projected export volume for the current year is 8.3 million tonnes, which is in line with the 2024-25 season level and significantly above the 10-year average.

Favorable weather conditions are also having a positive impact on the wheat harvest. According to FAS, the 2025-26 wheat harvest will be the third-largest in the country’s history.

The projected wheat production volume is 36 million tonnes, 1.9 million tonnes more than last year and 31% above the 10-year average. Despite a reduction in planted area of ​​almost 3% compared to the 2024-25 season, this is expected to be offset by an 8.5% increase in average yield.

“The upward revision is due to average and above-average precipitation in July and August, which increased potential yields in the main growing regions despite the late start to the season,” FAS experts note. “Sustained and timely rainfall in September and October in Western Australia further contributed to the high yield.”

Wheat exports from the world’s largest supplier are projected at 27 million tonnes, significantly above the 10-year average of 19.7 million tonnes.

Wheat and barley harvests in Australia traditionally take place from October to February.

Tags: Australia, barley, wheat