Argentine corn for delivery in April-May is cheaper than Ukrainian by more than $15/t

Further dynamics of prices for Ukrainian corn will depend on competition with other exporters and the entry into the market of a new crop from South America. In particular, Argentine corn with delivery in April-May is cheaper than Ukrainian by more than $15/t. This is reported by Spike Brokers.

“The further direction (of price growth, — ed. note) will be determined by the competitiveness of Ukrainian corn relative to the USA and the pace of entry into the market of the South American crop. Argentina is more than $15 cheaper than Ukrainian in April-May,” the report says.

According to brokers, the momentum of previous weeks is currently being lost on the Ukrainian corn market — logistics is stable, port infrastructure is operating without tension. Trader activity has decreased, prices have dropped by $1-2 from mid-week peaks. There have been almost no changes in the week-to-week format — some buyers are adjusting prices downward.

White Brokers note that purchase prices on DAP-port terms were kept in the range of $214–215/t, without significant fluctuations for most of last week. At the same time, at the end of the week, individual traders began to gradually reduce price indications. Their main expectation is a possible increase in supply from farmers due to the seasonal factor and the need of farmers for liquidity to finance spring field work.

“However, such a strategy may not be fully justified. Some producers may focus on selling sunflower and wheat, while corn will continue to be held,” the brokers note.

They add that another argument for restraining sales is the experience of the current season: farmers received the most attractive prices in May–July, which creates expectations of a possible repetition of such dynamics.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices, Argentina