Argentina’s soybean crop stabilizes

Showing signs of recovery from drought that has persisted through January, Argentina’s soybean crop is forecast to reach 49 million tonnes in marketing year 2024-25, the same as 2023-24, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The drought and extreme heat severely impacted the crop at critical developmental stages, leading to lower yield expectations across major growing regions, the FAS said. The most affected areas include northern and southern Buenos Aires province, where second-crop soybeans are expected to suffer yield losses of 80% to 90%.

Despite the challenging start to the season, recent rainfall beginning in early February has improved the outlook for the soybean crop in key growing re, the FAS noted. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA), 17% of the national soybean crop is rated in good to excellent condition, while 49% is classified as normal. However, 34% is rated as poor, a significant drop-off from 18% at the same time last year.

“The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) also reported that losses have stabilized, setting a floor for the upcoming harvest,” the FAS said. “While initial concerns suggested a potentially disastrous season, recent recovery has adjusted expectations closer to average or above-average yields in key regions.”

The FAS also has raised its 2023-24 crush estimate to 43 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from the last update. This is due to continued strong crush in December and January with indications from industry sources that high crush numbers are expected in the final two remaining months of the marketing year. Crush for 2024-25 is forecast at 42 million tonnes.

The FAS lowered its 2023-24 exports estimate by 300,000 tonnes from its previous update to 5 million tonnes based on export pace to date. That number is expected to climb to 7 million tonnes in 2024-25. Soybean meal exports are forecast to reach 29 million tonnes in 2024-25, essentially unchanged year on year.

Soybeans and soybean-derived products remain Argentina’s top agricultural exports, with soymeal leading at 11.3% of total export shipments. Argentina’s exports of the soy complex – which includes soybeans, soymeal, and soy oil – totaled $19.05 billion in calendar year 2024, an increase of 42% over 2023 despite lower global prices. This increase was fueled by higher shipments of soymeal and soy oil. While exports of unprocessed soybeans and biodiesel declined, the growth in processed products compensated for these losses.

Argentina’s soybean trade continues to be shaped by its reliance on imports for crushing and strong global demand for its processed products. Paraguay and Uruguay remain the primary suppliers of soybeans to Argentina’s crush industry.

On the export side, China remains Argentina’s largest soybean buyer, accounting for 85% of total whole soybean exports. Despite this, China’s imports from Argentina have slowed significantly in recent months and are expected to remain low in the coming months as China sources from other suppliers.

Meanwhile, sunflower seed production for the current marketing year is forecast by the FAS at 4 million tonnes. About 11% of the current sunflower crop has been harvested as of March 11, which is 28 percentage points behind last year’s pace at this time. This would be about 300,000 tonnes above the previous year.

“Sunflower continues to gain traction as a strategic alternative to soybeans and corn, particularly in Argentina’s core agricultural regions in southern Córdoba and central and northern Buenos Aires provinces,” the FAS said. “The shift is largely attributed to sunflower’s resilience against drought and pests.”

In the past two months, Argentina’s sunflower industry has experienced growth in crush and trade. In 2023-24 and 2024-25, the FAS said it expects the country to crush 3.8 million tonnes of sunflower, slightly below the 4 million tonnes record set in 2022-23. Exports are expected to be 1.05 million tonnes in 2024-25, slightly lower than 1.15 million tonnes year on year.

Tags: soybean, Argentina