Argentina’s soybean crop expansion could be the largest in a decade

Argentina’s 2024/25 planting season could see the largest expansion of soybean plantings in a decade, while Brazil is expected to see the slowest growth in soybean plantings over the same time period. Agriculture analysts report that this will potentially increase supplies globally, putting pressure on already low prices.

Argentina’s soybean acreage has been shrinking in recent years, competing with corn for space. But fears that a cicada infestation similar to the one that wiped out the last corn crop could hit fields again are likely to reduce corn plantings by about 2 million hectares (4.9 million acres) – in favor of soybeans. Last year, 16.8 million acres were planted to soybeans nationwide. Farmers are also confirming plans to expand planting soybeans instead of corn. “Usually we plant 35-40% of the land with corn, but this time we are going to do an average of 20-25%. Of what won’t go to corn, almost everything will be replaced with soybeans,” shares Anibal Cordoba, a farmer and member of the producer group. The planned expansion could be the largest annualized expansion since 2012 (1.2 million hectares).

Brazil’s planted area growth is likely to slow as the largest annual increase under soybeans in Brazil came during periods of declining world stocks and stocks for use, and vice versa. According to Brazil’s Conab statistics agency, annual gains in soybean acreage over the past four seasons have ranged from 4.4% to 7%, although they ranged from 2% to 3.7% between 2015-2016 and 2019-2020, when prices were low and supplies were high. Soybean planted area in the country will reach 47 million hectares in the coming season.

However, the slowdown in Brazil’s soybean planting growth is unlikely to prevent global stocks from rising, USDA forecasts that global soybean stocks will reach an all-time high in 2024-2025, up nearly 22 million tons from the previous year, and stocks to consumption are barely behind the 2018-2019 record level. Brazil will play a big role in building surpluses, as USDA forecasts a soybean crop 16 million tons (10%) larger than the previous season, with area growth of 3.3%, even though global soybean consumption is expected to grow just 5% year-over-year.

Brazilian farmers will start sowing soybeans for the 2024-25 crop next month. The country is preparing for a record soybean crop of 169 million tons in the 2024/25 season, which could further depress already low soybean prices on the world market.

Tags: soybean, Argentina