Argentina’s meat exports continue to decline

We must make an effort to find good news on the Argentine beef export front. Positive data currently indicate that in terms of prices, the average value per tonne of product shipped has increased the most year-on-year in the region, registering an increase of more than […]

We must make an effort to find good news on the Argentine beef export front. Positive data currently indicate that in terms of prices, the average value per tonne of product shipped has increased the most year-on-year in the region, registering an increase of more than 30 percentage points, compared to more moderate percentage points for other origins. Rosgan points out that this improvement in achieved prices is being seen in almost all of the main destinations for Argentine beef.

The flip side of this good news is trade volumes. Data provided by INDEC indicate a total volume of 52.1 thousand tons of product weight in foreign sales last month, up 17% from the 44.5 thousand tons reported in the previous month. However, compared to last year’s figures, April has not yet recovered and is the fifth consecutive month with lower sales figures in terms of trade volume.

Thus, in the first four months of the year, the total volume of shipments reached 195.7 thousand tons of the product, generating about $964 million in revenue. Compared to the 260.9 thousand tons exported in the same period last year, these figures indicate a 25% drop in volume, but only a 2% drop in value.

Rosgan invites us to compare these figures with those of other countries in the region, which in the same international context have managed to increase their exports. In the case of Brazil, its beef shipments increased by 12.8% in volume in the first four months of this year, reaching a total of 827.8 thousand tons of product. Uruguay maintained its exports at 126.3 thousand tons of product weight in the same period, slightly higher than the volume recorded a year earlier. Paraguay, for its part, increased its foreign sales by almost 20%, reaching 115.9 thousand tons of exports.

In the case of Argentina, its exposure to the Chinese market is the highest among the countries in the region, since sales to this destination continue to account for almost 60% of total exports. The fact is that compared to last year, the Asian giant purchased 40% less beef in these first four months of 2025.

Renowned cattle market analyst Ignacio Iriarte argues that domestic consumption is performing surprisingly well, but he cannot fully explain the collapse of exports, largely due to the sharp drop in Chinese purchases. “We can’t continue to operate in this market at these prices; the numbers don’t add up. The beef business is an exceptional prospect internationally, but we are exporting less and less. Meanwhile, the United States has an $8 steer on its hook and is a magnet for beef exporters around the world, although the cycle may be starting to turn.” According to the GACC, China imported just over 890,000 tonnes of beef from all sources from January to April, down 11% from its purchases in the same period last year. That means that, at least so far, the numbers don’t support the USDA’s forecast, which says China will maintain its purchase levels in 2025, up a whopping 2% from last year, potentially taking its annual total to over 3.8 million tonnes. Rosgan says that to meet USDA’s forecast, Chinese purchases would have to accelerate significantly over the next eight months of the year, maintaining an average volume of more than 250,000 tons per month, which is unlikely based on current trends.

While the low prices China paid until last year appear to be fading, current prices also do not reflect the current tight supply situation in the global balance, a situation that could even worsen in the coming years. Some are warning that it is running out of suppliers.

Rosgan technicians point out that the recent Sial International Food Fair held in China did not fully live up to expectations. Although the agreed prices for our country’s products are not bad, strong competition from Brazil and Australia, each represented in different product segments, raises the bar too high for other competitors in a difficult to interpret demand environment.

It is worth remembering that the results of the security investigation launched by the Chinese government last December, which includes Argentina among the supplying countries, should be known in the coming months. It is suspected that the impact will not go unnoticed by those selling beef behind the Great Wall, whether in tariffs or market access quotas. Australian sources believe that their country risks paying a 12% tariff for increasing supplies.

Argentina’s exports are on an alarming path so far. At the same time, since last October, our country has been increasing its beef imports, from virtually zero until this month to just over 1,600 tons in April 2025. Brazil is the main supplier, having accumulated about 3,400 tons this year. Paraguay and Uruguay, with smaller volumes, should also be added. It remains to be seen how this trend will develop, but if it continues, we should expect between 15,000 and 20,000 tons of beef. This is not much, but it is an indicator of the strengthening of the peso.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that our country is close to an agreement on the export of offal to China. Chinese authorities are expected to visit Argentina on June 8 for new rounds of talks. Both sides are working to finalize the technical details.

Tags: export, Beef cattle, Argentina