Argentina’s corn harvest forecast raised to 57.9 mln tons, but drought risks persist

Analysts at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) have raised their forecast for Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production by 6% to 57.9 million tons. The upward revision is driven by a larger-than-expected planted area, although significant weather risks remain, the company said in its report.

Since early January, the Pampas region has recorded a rainfall deficit of 50–70 mm. However, mild temperatures and previously high soil moisture levels have so far helped prevent a sharp deterioration in crop conditions.

The most challenging situation is expected in the southern Pampas, particularly in Buenos Aires province, where hot and dry weather is forecast to persist over the next two weeks. These conditions could negatively affect yields, especially for late-planted corn.

At the same time, western and northern corn-growing regions, including Cordoba and Santa Fe provinces, may experience cooler temperatures and some rainfall, which could partially improve crop development conditions.

According to LSEG, crop vegetation density is currently close to average, but the situation could deteriorate quickly if hot and dry conditions persist. Forecasts for February point to cooler but drier weather, reinforcing concerns over final yield potential.

Tags: Argentina, crop forecast, corn